Tesla stock price and forecast: TSLA earnings preview

  • Tesla reports results after the close on Wednesday.
  • TSLA needs a strong outperformance to help stem recent losses.
  • Tesla’s delivery numbers are already strong.

Tesla (TSLA) gets its time in the limelight later after Wednesday’s close, but the EV star will have to share that limelight with the Fed. The Fed’s Q&A will be the most important part of its two-day conference. We assume nothing is happening on the interest rate front, but that should pave the way for a hike in March. This is priced into the markets, so assuming nothing too surprising we may not be able to produce a relief rally.

Tesla (TSLA) could add to that if it can produce strong results. So far, the earnings season has not been as expected. Bank earnings were mixed, with investment banks being perhaps the most disappointing aspect. Unfortunately, this happened just when ETFs from the financial sector topped the charts for entries. This week we had Microsoft (MSFT) so far, which produced strong earnings and a good outlook. Thursday, Apple (AAPL) reports. This trio could overturn all market sentiment.

Tesla Stock News

Tesla is expected to post earnings per share (EPS) of $2.26 on revenue of $16.35 billion. Tesla already released delivery numbers earlier this month. Deliveries affected 308,000 vehicles. Given that deliveries are the main driver, this should limit unpleasant surprises. Investors and analysts will primarily focus on maintaining margins amid rising costs. To what extent is Tesla able to pass on this price increase to its customers? We’ve seen Tesla increase the prices of some models before, and the company recently announced price increases in China.

Tesla is our highest risk out of the three big tech names mentioned: Microsoft, Tesla and Apple. We’re all familiar with Tesla’s lofty valuation metrics, and high-growth names suffering disproportionately have been a feature of 2022. Delivery numbers are already irrelevant, meaning the focus will only be on margins and prospects.

Tesla Stock Forecast

$843 is a big support, the deviation from October last year. Tesla is currently in a fairly strong downtrend with the old $980 pivot still in place. We also identified $886 as the key. Yes, the stock fell on Monday, but only briefly, and it was strongly dismissed. Any stabilization could see a bullish double bottom, and also note the divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Earnings will be key. If we can sustain here and earnings are good, then TSLA should push higher. Failure will however see a breakout of $843 and the 200 day moving average below is the obvious target at $812. Currently too undecided before the results, we will update our view afterwards.

Tesla Chart (TSLA), Daily


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Karen J. Nelson